Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.Kalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce.Odds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%.The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 deteriorated rapidly following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order and the ensuing sell-off in capital markets, sparking fears of a prolonged bear market.Odds of US recession in 2025 top 60% on the Kalshi prediction market. Source: kalshiRelated: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocksTrump’s executive order throws markets in disarrayThe US President’s executive order established a 10% baseline tariff rate for all countries and different “reciprocal” tariff rates on trading partners with existing tariffs on US import goods.Trump’s announcement triggered an immediate stock market sell-off, wiping away over $5 trillion in shareholder value in a matter of days.Fears of a recession continue to grow as market analysts warn of a potentially protracted trade war that negatively impacts global markets and suppresses risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.Meanwhile, President Trump has expressed confidence that the tariffs will strengthen the US economy long-term and correct any trade imbalances.”The markets are going to boom,” the President said on April 3, describing the current market sell-off as an expected part of the process.The stock market sell-off continues as stocks shed trillions in shareholder value. Source: TradingViewAsset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump deliberately crashed markets to bring down interest rates.Pompliano cited the reduction in 10-year US Treasury bonds as evidence that the President’s strategy of forcing a recession to impact rates is working.Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds declined from approximately 4.66% in January 2025 to just 4.00% on April 5. President Trump is also pressuring Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to lower short-term interest rates.”This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” Trump wrote in an April 4 Truth Social post.Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again
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